Update 3: Palau: Typhoon Bopha Navy Satellite Imagery and Current Forecasts

Jim Caldwell
Redondo Beach

Palau Typhoon Bopha on shore, Navy Satellite Imagery of Typhoon Bobha Dec 2012, Jim Caldwell Redondo Beach, Palau scuba diving, palaudiving.wordpress.com

Palau Typhoon Bopha on shore, Navy Satellite Imagery of Typhoon Bobha Dec 2012, Jim Caldwell Redondo Beach, Palau scuba diving, palaudiving.wordpress.com
Typhoon in Palau, South Pacific, Oceania, Australia, Guam, Philippines
Typhoon 26W (Bopha) Warning #29, Issued 2/2100Z, Navy Satellite imagery of Super Typhoon, Typhoon Bopha, Palau Typhoon, Palau residents encouraged to prepare for Typhoon Bopha, Jim Caldwell Redondo Beach, Palau scuba diving, palaudiving.wordpress.com

Typhoon 26W (Bopha) Warning #29 Issued at 02/2100Z

Present Navy Forecast:

WDPN31 PGTW 022100 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (BOPHA) WARNING NR 29// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. TYPHOON (TY) 26W (BOPHA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 105 NM WEST- SOUTHWEST OF PALAU, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS LOST THE SMALL EYE FEATURE PREVALENT OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS BUT REMAINS A VERY SYMMETRIC, COMPACT SYSTEM WITH A DEEP LAYER OF CENTRAL CONVECTION. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE PGTW POSITION FIX AND THE TRACKING OF FEATURES IN EIR. A RECENT 021631Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS INDICATES A WEAK EYE FEATURE REMAINS BENEATH THE CLOUD SHIELD, BUT APPEARS TO INDICATE THE EYEWALL IS BREAKING DOWN INTO A SERIES OF TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING. BASED ON THE LOSS OF THE EYE AND THE RECENT AMSU-B PASS, THE INTENSITY WAS DROPPED TO 115 KNOTS, BRINGING THE SYSTEM BACK TO TYPHOON STRENGTH. DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD SUPPORT THE WEAKENING TREND BUT VARY SIGNIFICANTLY FROM 90 TO 127 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A POINT-SOURCE ANTICYCLONE REMAINS OVER THE SYSTEM, PROVIDING AMPLE RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TY 26W CONTINUES TO TRACK WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EXTENT OF THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTH. 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. B. TY 26W IS FORECAST TO TRACK ON A STEADY WESTWARD TRACK ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR, MAKING LANDFALL INTO THE PHILIPPINE ISLANDS SLIGHTLY AFTER BY TAU 24. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT OF LOW VWS, AMPLE OUTFLOW, AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT WILL ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN ITSELF AS A STRONG TYPHOON THROUGH LANDFALL, WITH ONLY A SLOW WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM EXPECTED DUE TO A SLIGHT DECREASE IN ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER LANDFALL, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN MORE QUICKLY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER THE PHILIPPINES. C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY 26W IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS), SLOWING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO A COL REGION BETWEEN TWO ELONGATED LOBES OF THE STR. INCREASING VWS AND THE INTERACTION WITH A DEVELOPING NORTHEASTERLY COLD SURGE WILL HAMPER THE REORGANIZATION OF TY 26W AS IT TRACKS SLOWLY INTO THE CENTRAL SCS. THERE ARE SOME CONCERNS REGARDING THE INTENSITY AT LATER TAUS DUE TO THE SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE PHILIPPINES AND WHETHER THE POSSIBILITY FOR GREATER WEAKENING EXISTS THAN CURRENTLY SUGGESTED BY MODEL GUIDANCE. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE TRACK THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH ONLY A SLIGHT VARIATION BY TAU 120. DUE TO THIS TIGHT AGREEMENT, THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH.//
Jim Caldwell Redondo Beach

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About jw60sea

Jim Caldwell has over 26 years of experience in the public safety sector in occupations ranging from professional ski patrol, and ocean lifeguard to firefighter. Jim has worked for the Redondo Beach Fire Department for the last 22 years holding successively higher positions of responsibility. For the last six years, Jim has held the rank of Engineer with responsibility for driving and operating the Department’s Engines and Tillered Aerial Ladder Truck. Throughout his career, he has shown a dedication not only to public safety but also community service.
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